Bonn Conference and Obstacles ahead of Afghanistan

The world will continue with its long term support to assist Afghanistan until the country attains stability, peace, prosperity and economic wellbeing. But this support is based on the condition that the Afghan government takes serious measures to fight corruption, strengthen good governance and create opportunities for its people in the years to come. Also, the government of Afghanistan should focus on establishing a political process that can ensure participation of all ethnic groups of this country.

These were the clear messages of the international community to the Afghan administration in the recently-held Bonn conference on Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the views of some key players at regional and world level signaled certain other additional demands: Afghanistan cannot move towards a better future as long as it solely depends on international aid. What is needed in addition is a regional framework for cooperation.

Pakistan boycotted the conference while Iran, once again, repeated its stance on the presence of Western countries in Afghanistan. It accused Western countries of bolstering violence and terrorism in the region by its presence in Afghanistan. At the same time, China referring to the legitimate concerns of Afghan neighbors and countries in the region demanded that the existing regional cooperation structures should be utilized and strengthened. The Russians expressed their concerns over a reconciliation and negotiation process with the Taliban and said that the draft plans for this purpose should be specified and indentified.

Albeit the Bonn conference has ended and the Western countries – including the United States of America – have reaffirmed their long term support, there is still no specific framework for their future aid commitment. What one can understand from the comments of Hillary Clinton, the US Foreign Secretary, is that her country is not ready to fulfill a major portion of the commitments to Afghanistan beyond 2014. She said supporting Afghanistan is the responsibility of all countries and that they have to play their role in this regard. Her statements come at times, when according to figures the deficit in the Afghan national budget will persist for many years to come and this deficit requires to be funded through international financial aid. By 2014, the Afghan budget deficit will have reached about 11 million dollars - with six million specified for military expenditure and the other five to be utilized for private sector and development purposes. Until the withdrawal process of international troops completes, the US might fund a major portion of the Afghan deficit while its remaining balance will be funded by the US allies. However, a concrete framework for international aid to Afghanistan after 2014 has not been developed so far and none of the representatives of countries and international organizations who took part in the Bonn conference put light on this matter. 

On the other hand, the lack of general consensus among the western players on how to deal with Afghanistan is a signal to the regional neighbors to play a stronger role in the political stabilization of Afghanistan. Apparently, all countries favor peace, stability and development in Afghanistan and deem this vital for regional stability. That is indeed a fact but many of the key regional and global players present no specific agenda for Afghanistan. If all these countries will continue to pursue their own objectives in Afghanistan, this may prolong instability and conflict in the country. Hence, the emphasis of the key regional and global players does not give more security for positive developments in Afghanistan. Afghans need to find a way of making their country move in a right direction - culturally, politically and economically - after 2014 when Afghanistan will be facing domestic challenges due to the absence of international troops. However, this should not discourage Afghans to put their efforts into the developments of their country. But the experiences of the last ten years and the capacity and approach of the current Afghan government encourage a mentality that is based on the idea that after 2014, development in Afghanistan will still not be in the best interest of the people of Afghanistan.